Impact of 1, 2 and 4 °c of global warming on ship navigation in the canadian arctic
Type: Journal Article Venue: Nature Climate Change Year: 2021
Abstract
Climate change-driven reductions in sea ice have facilitated increased shipping traffic volumes across the Arctic. Here, we use climate model simulations to investigate changing navigability in the Canadian Arctic for major trade routes and coastal community resupply under 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, on the basis of operational Polar Code regulations. Profound shifts in ship-accessible season length are projected across the Canadian Arctic, with the largest increases in the Beaufort region (100–200 d at 2 °C to 200–300 d at 4 °C). Projections along the Northwest Passage and Arctic Bridge trade routes indicate 100% navigation probability for part of the year, regardless of vessel type, above 2 °C of global warming. Along some major trade routes, substantial increases to season length are possible if operators assume additional risk and operate under marginally unsafe conditions. Local changes in accessibility for maritime resupply depend strongly on community location.
Citation
Lawrence R. Mudryk, Jackie Dawson, Stephen E. L. Howell, Chris Derksen, Thomas A. Zagon, and Mike Brady (2021). Impact of 1, 2 and 4 °c of global warming on ship navigation in the canadian arctic. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01087-6
BibTeX
@article{mudryk_impact_2021,
title = {Impact of 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming on ship navigation in the Canadian Arctic},
volume = {11},
issn = {1758-6798},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01087-6},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-021-01087-6},
abstract = {Climate change-driven reductions in sea ice have facilitated increased shipping traffic volumes across the Arctic. Here, we use climate model simulations to investigate changing navigability in the Canadian Arctic for major trade routes and coastal community resupply under 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, on the basis of operational Polar Code regulations. Profound shifts in ship-accessible season length are projected across the Canadian Arctic, with the largest increases in the Beaufort region (100–200 d at 2 °C to 200–300 d at 4 °C). Projections along the Northwest Passage and Arctic Bridge trade routes indicate 100\% navigation probability for part of the year, regardless of vessel type, above 2 °C of global warming. Along some major trade routes, substantial increases to season length are possible if operators assume additional risk and operate under marginally unsafe conditions. Local changes in accessibility for maritime resupply depend strongly on community location.},
pages = {673--679},
number = {8},
journaltitle = {Nature Climate Change},
shortjournal = {Nature Climate Change},
author = {Mudryk, Lawrence R. and Dawson, Jackie and Howell, Stephen E. L. and Derksen, Chris and Zagon, Thomas A. and Brady, Mike},
date = {2021-08-01},
}