@article{mcneil_synoptic_2026,
	title = {Synoptic Controls of Extreme Ice Area Flux Events Along Nares Strait},
	volume = {131},
	url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2025JC022973},
	doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JC022973},
	abstract = {Abstract Nares Strait, the channel between Ellesmere Island and northwest Greenland, connects the Arctic Ocean's Lincoln Sea to northern Baffin Bay. The transport of thick, multi-year sea ice southward down the Strait contributes to the overall loss of this important ice class from the Arctic. Using sea ice motion derived from synthetic aperture radar imagery, we characterize the variability and extremes in ice transport across a flux gate situated at its northern terminus. Although the long-term mean daily ice area flux over the January 2016-January 2024 period, excluding periods with an ice arch present, is approximately 316 km2/day southwards, we observe frequent, large, and short-lived reversals during which the ice is transported northwards into the Lincoln Sea with extreme events exceeding 590 km2/day. Here, we characterize the synoptic conditions associated with extreme ice transport events along the Strait, defined by the 5th and 95th percentiles of the ice area flux over the 8-year period of study. Extreme southward transport events exceeding 1,070 km2/day are associated with a synoptic-scale environment characterized by higher sea-level pressures over the Arctic Ocean and lower sea-level pressures over the Davis Strait and the Labrador Sea. The identified extreme northward transport events are associated with a reversal in the pressure gradient as well as a pan-Arctic reversal in ice motion. Extreme ice area flux events can present hazards to marine activity and reversals in conditions are important to document as changes as they may be a signal of larger scale changes in the climate system.},
	pages = {e2025JC022973},
	number = {3},
	journaltitle = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans},
	author = {{McNeil}, K. and Moore, G. W. K. and Howell, S. E. L. and Brady, M.},
	date = {2026-03-03},
	note = {\_eprint: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2025JC022973},
	keywords = {air sea ice interactions, Arctic, Nares Strait, sea ice},
}